Paul
Goble
Staunton, September 8 – There is a potentially
explosive downside for Moscow to the defeat of ISIS in Syria: More than 5,000
Russian citizens and 5,000 other Russian speakers from CIS countries had been
fighting for the Islamic State, and those not killed or captured in the Middle
East will likely return to their homelands and possibly continue terrorist
activities there.
Anton Chablin of the Svobodnaya pressa portal spoke with two
specialists who have focused on what Moscow might do to counter this threat,
Rais Suleymanov, a Moscow specialist on Islam who edits Musulmansky mir, and Mikhail Roshchin, a senior scholar at the
Moscow Institute of Oriental Studies (svpressa.ru/war21/article/181018/).
Their comments suggest that Moscow
is a long way from figuring out what to do and that hundreds if not thousands
of ISIS fighters are likely to find their way back to Russia or to other CIS
countries, with all the frightening consequences that would likely have.
Russia faces a threat from such
returnees, Suleymanov says, even if they are returned under arrest. Such people
would quickly fill up Russian prisons and camps and engage in active
recruitment there, something Islamist radicals have done in the past. But the greater danger is that they will slip
in and then engage in illegal activities.
One approach now under discussion,
he continues, is to deprive all those who fought for ISIS of Russian
citizenship. That would mean that they
would be excluded from returning and, if under arrest, would remain in the
custody of Syria or Iraq, states that would then have to decide “what to do
with these people according to their own laws.”
Some of these captives may be
executed, Suleymanov suggests; others sentenced to lengthy prison terms; and
still a third group, seeking the best for themselves, may seek to obtain Syrian
or Iraqi citizenship and then move about on that basis.
Roshchin agrees that Russians and
CIS country nationals who have fought for ISIS are a danger. He suggests that
at a minimum, Russia and the others must put them on watch lists and deny them
entrance, although unless all do, some of these people may enter via one
country and then move to another, including Russia.
But neither man on this occasion at least
acknowledge that many of these fighters may be able to return to their
countries the same way they left, by illegal underground means. And to the
extent that happens, Moscow and other CIS capitals may not even know they are
there until there is a terrorist act.
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