Paul
Goble
Staunton, September 13 – In order to
unite the Russian population around him, Vladimir Putin clearly wants to
demonstrate once again his power to bring order to the state, Irina Pavlova
says. He would have preferred to do so by suppressing a liberal rising, but he
will be quite content to do the same against Orthodox radicals.
In her blog, the US-based Russian
historian argues that the Kremlin created conditions for a liberal “rising”
earlier this year but that Russian liberals proved “too conformist, law-abiding,
and incapable of really aggressive anti-government actions. Consequently, Putin
is looking elsewhere (ivpavlova.blogspot.com/2017/09/blog-post_13.html#more).
Putin’s preferences were clearly
signally by Bishop Tikhon Shevkunov,
Putin’s spiritual guide and a rising star in official Russian Orthodoxy, ten
days ago in Yekaterinburg when he delivered the message that “any uprising must
be put down” and that liberals represent “the most extremist” and “most
dangerous” force in Russia (youtube.com/watch?v=84T1tbzXgfI).
But the liberals did not oblige in
this case by acting in a way that would allow Putin to demonstrate once again
that he is on the side of order rather than chaos, Pavlova argues, and thus again
must be the choice of an overwhelming number of Russians in the upcoming
presidential elections.
And consequently, she says, “the
powers that be have given carte blanche to the actions of Black Hundreds forces,
thus placing its bets on radical Orthodox society. Duma deputy Natalya
Poklonskaya has played “an important provocatory role” in this, but “future
historians will recall all her links with the leadership of the Russian
Orthodox Church and the FSB.”
And they will also take note that “as
if by command,” now “a whole series of articles” have appeared in the Russian
media attacking the more extreme aspects of this movement and describing it as “an
Orthodox ISIS.” Among these are articles by Aleksandr Soldatov (novayagazeta.ru/articles/2017/09/12/73792-pravoslavnyy-halifat)
and Yuliya Latynina (novayagazeta.ru/articles/2017/09/11/73786-pravoslavnyy-terrorizm-layt),
and a television comment by Vladimir Solovyev (youtube.com/watch?v=9RdPA_c8qoE&t=6499s).
In each case, Pavlova says, the
message is the same and the one the Kremlin wants delivered: “better state-controlled
force than chaotic” violence arising under other banners that could challenge stability.
And in the case of Solovyev, there was the following addendum: “the state must
react” to what is going on.
According to the Russian historian, “we
are thus witnesses to a situation either provoked by the authorities directly or
at least supported by it of uncontrolled chaotic force in the country.” For the
immediate future, there may be even more incidents of this kind of force,
something that will only generate more demands for imposing order.
“And then the powers that be all in
white will arrive on the scene with government repressions against these
extremists in the broadest sense of this word and impose order.” That would be
an entirely appropriate lesson on the 100th anniversary of October
1917, she says, and it would certainly generate support for another Putin term.
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