Paul
Goble
Staunton, September 16 – Most people
have interpreted Vladimir Putin’s attacks on non-Russian languages in general
and on Tatar in Tatarstan in particular as a reflection of his centralizing and
Russian nationalist agenda; but in fact, Ilshat Sayetov says, the struggle over
languages in Tatarstan is first and foremost about power and about control of
oil.
Why did Putin raise this issue now?
the Kazan political scientist asks. He was gradually getting what he wanted
from Kazan: no extension of the power-sharing agreement, the projected end of
the title of republic president, and so on and didn’t need any public fight before
the elections (idelreal.org/a/yazik-eto-pokazatel-suvereniteta-ilshat-saetov/28737289.html).
With time and with relatively little
fuss, Sayetov says, the status of Tatarstan was going to be reduced; “and after
the elections of the president of Russia, additional steps in the economic
sphere could be taken.” So why now? The
answer lies in the Russian economic crisis and the status of the oil industry.
Tatarstan, he points out, is “almost
the only place in Russia where large oil and oil and gas processing enterprises
are not [now] controlled by federal bureaucrats and oligarchs. This is a very
importance resource, and in Russia, over the last several years, the economic ‘pie’
has been getting smaller.”
Putin and his team have been
interested in gaining control of Tatarstan’s assets in this area; but their
earlier attempts, the Kazan scholar points out, have been unsuccessful in large
part because “the political weight of the republic” is too great for Moscow to
move as fast and as far as it would like.
That becomes obvious if one
considers the case of Bashkortostan where the power of the republic declined
and then people around Putin in Moscow swooped in an took away its most
important enterprises. All this, Sayetov says, explains why the language fight
is occurring, why it is not simply about language, and thus why it is so
fierce.
If Tatarstan loses on the language
issue, many in the republic will take that as a sign of where things are
heading; and Kazan will lose some of the base it now has. Given that Moscow may succeed in reducing
Tatar language instruction, it is highly probable that in the near future there
will be other and perhaps even more important changes as well.
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