Paul
Goble
Staunton, September 27 – Vladimir
Putin views the upcoming presidential elections as being not so much about
legitimizing him as the leader of the Russian people but rather as a ruler “who
wants to write him name down in history,” according to Tatyana Stanovaya; and
that shift will affect both the campaign and his behavior after the vote.
According to the Russian analyst,
Putin is seeking to install “a new technocratic model of political administration,”
one that will require less immediate participation on his part in current
affairs and thus allow him to focus on bigger issues that he believes will
define his place in Russian history (carnegie.ru/commentary/73217).
Since the 1990s, Putin has viewed
elections as an unnecessary distraction but one that he has felt compelled to
focus on because they are the basis for his legitimation, Stanovaya say. But
now he and those around him, confident of the outcome once again, want to shift
the basis of legitimation from popular to historical.
“In contrast to all preceding
campaigns,” she suggests, Putin will “gradually disappear as an active actor.” Instead, he will delegate the task of his
re-election to “the new Kremlin political technologists.” In sum, it will be
they rather than Putin that orchestrates the campaign – and that will change
both its nature and its meaning.
According to Stanovaya, Putin in
recent years “has become more mechanical in his approach to issues of political
administration.” And so what he is doing now is simply taking that approach to
a new level and infusing it with new meaning. “The new post-Crimea psychology
has given him as it were the moral and historical right” to make this shift.
Electoral legitimation has declined
in importance as his geopolitical actions have increased. It is they and not
the vote of the people that in Putin’s mind justify his rule. He and those around him are now considering
their actions not in terms of the population but in terms of the history of
Russia.
This means, Stanovaya says, that “the
role of elections” has declined in importance for Putin because “the people is
ceasing to be the source of Putin’s legitimacy.” That is something people in the Presidential
Administration clearly feel, and they want to keep problems from cropping up by
minimizing the campaign.
As a result, she continues, “Putin will begin
to play a more passive role [inside Russia] but at the same time a more global
role [beyond its borders].”
Another shift in Kremlin thinking
that arises from this is that the Kremlin now emphasizes legality over
legitimacy. That has the effect of “lowering
the importance of institutions in favor of the importance of procedures,”
something that raises the importance of technocrats while reducing the
importance of political figures and of politics as such.
Indeed, it now appears, she says,
that “the Kremlin technologists are convinced that legitimacy is the result of
legality.” If the elections take place without scandals even if they are
completely managed, that in and of itself will confer further legitimation on
Putin, these people think, unlike their predecessors who worried about
participation and percentages.
One important aspect of the
situation that is as yet unresolved is whether Putin will run as a candidate of
United Russia or as an independent. The latter would require the collection of
two million signatures on petitions, but that is not a problem. However, if
Putin does run as an independent that will have serious consequences for the
Russian political system.
If Putin does run as an independent,
that will increase “the new trend toward depoliticization and technocratization
of the political sphere,” and it will diversify Putin’s bases of support, at a
minimum depriving United Russia of its “exclusive” role, something that will
affect how the country is governed after the vote.
In sum, Stanovaya says, this
election, like each of Putin’s earlier ones, will become “an important milepost
in the development of the regime.” And this one seems set to change the Russian
system even more than the earlier votes, reducing the political and increasing the
personal as Putin looks beyond this term to history.
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