Paul Goble
Staunton, September 6 – Vladimir
Putin’s visit to Beijing and Siberia has generated widespread attention to what
Moscow may do to try to boost the economy and build up the population of Russia
east of the Urals, something that comes at a time when Russian nervousness
about China’s intentions with regard to Russian territory are again on the
rise.
Among the developments in recent
weeks fueling these fears are the following:
·
New
estimates of the number of Chinese citizens living in the Russian Far East that
range up to 2.5 million, sparking concerns that Beijing might invoke Putin’s
own Crimean strategy in order to absorb portions of the Russian Far East and
Siberia at some point in the future (charter97.org/ru/news/2017/9/1/261601/).
·
A
dramatic influx of Chinese tourists on top of these permanent residents, most
of whom have come to visit sites connected with the 1917 Bolshevik revolution
but who often stay in Chinese-organized hotels and eat at Chinese restaurants,
leading some Russians to think the Chinese view the region already as theirs de
facto (asiarussia.ru/articles/17472/ and http://babr24.com/baik/?IDE=164281).
·
Growing
anger among Siberians about the way in which Moscow officials and regional ones
are selling off the natural resources of their country to China and pocketing
the revenue rather than sharing it with the region’s population (asiarussia.ru/articles/17535/).
·
Expanded
land and air connections between the Russian Far East and China, connections
that make it far cheaper for Russians to travel to China and Chinese to travel
to the Russian Far East than for Russians in that region to travel to Moscow (http://dom.lenta.ru/news/2017/09/06/gotochina/).
·
And
the appearance, according to unconfirmed but entirely plausible reports of road
signs in Siberian and Far Eastern cities in the Chinese language, the kind of
small thing that leads to often over-heated reactions (intersucks.ru/политика/dorozhnyie-znaki-v-rossii-produbliruyut-na-kitayskom-i-hindi/).
Yaroslav Zolotaryov, a Siberian
regionalist, provides a balanced assessment of the nature of Chinese activities
on Russian territory and Beijing’s possible moves in the future in an article
entitled “Does China Threaten Siberia?” His answer is a cautious one, not yet
and not necessarily territorially but definitely culturally (afterempire.info/2017/09/06/china-siberia/).
He points to three reasons for concern:
Chinese memories of the unequal treaties Russia imposed on Beijing 150 years
ago and Beijing’s desire, still implicit, to rectify the situation; the
economic and demographic growth of China at a time of Russia’s economic and demographic
decline; and the population and resource imbalance between China and the
Russian Far East.
Those concerns have only intensified this
year, he continues, because the number of Chinese immigrant workers in the
Russian Far East has gone up by 400,000 since January 2017, while Russia’s Far
Eastern Federal District has lost two million people in the same period as a
result of higher death rates and outmigration.
Putin regime propaganda insists there is
no threat, Zolotaryov says; but its arguments both are problematic and have the
effect of calling attention to a threat Moscow does not want to talk about at
all, thus provoking the very worries that the regime would like to still.
According to Moscow, “the Chinese Peoples
Republic is more interested in investments in Siberian enterprises than in
populating the region.” But the Siberian regionalist argues that the one almost
certainly will lead to the other over time.
Second, Moscow insists that because the
standard of living in China is higher than in Russia, the Chinese won’t be
interested in moving to Russia. But in fact, they are moving there and are
seeking to make their fortunes beyond China’s current borders. They are doing
that now exporting twice as much wealth from Russia as they are bringing to it.
And third, Moscow says, “the Chinese have other
places to move to because a significant part of China is underpopulated. But
the Chinese move to where there are resources, and there are far more of those
in Siberia and the Russian Far East than in the parts of China where
populations are small.
Zolotaryov concludes that “the Siberian
people in the 21st century will be threatened not only by
assimilation from imperial Russian-speaking culture, which in fact is already
occurring, but also by assimilation from a China that is no less imperial” and
thus of concern to the residents of the enormous region east of the Urals.
Some Russian commentators are much less
measured in their reaction. One, writing on the Russian Orthodox nationalist
site, Russkaya liniya, recalls that
in the 1930s, Stalin expelled all the ethnic Chinese from the Russian Far East making
that region but not the USSR as a whole “Chinese free.”
He expresses regret that there appears
little chance for a repetition of what he sees as an act of national salvation (ruskline.ru/analitika/2017/09/06/izbavlenie_ot_zheltoj_opasnosti/).
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