Paul
Goble
Staunton, September 6 – Less than
two weeks from when a joint Russian-Belarusian military exercise is scheduled
to begin, Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka reportedly raised the
salaries and benefits of the officers in the siloviki, the kind of thing a
leader concerned about their loyalty might do.
And that there is a basis for Lukashenka’s
apparent concern is suggested by one opposition figure who suggests that “in
the army of Belarus, pro-Putin and anti-Lukashenka attitudes rule,” a situation
that if true might make it even more likely that Moscow could use the Zapad
2017 exercise as cover for regime change in its western neighbor.
Over the last week, Lukashenka has
increased salaries, pensioners, and benefits for the military and the police by
as much as 40 percent, a move that means the recipients will have an additional
reason for loyalty to him since the increases will bring their standard of
living close to Russian counterparts (ttp://belsat.eu/ru/in-focus/lukashenko-podnyal-silovikam-zarplaty-na-40/).
These moves, Belsat reports, have
not been trumpeted on the government’s website lest such reports offend the
hard-pressed Belarusian population for whom Lukashenka seems less concerned and
whose attitude the Belarusian leader may believe is less critical to his
survival than the feelings of the siloviki.
Meanwhile,
Nikolay Statkevich, a leader of the Belarusian opposition, says that “for the
Belarusian army, the Russian president [Putin] is more authoritative than his
Belarusian colleague [Lukashenka]” and that such a balance of attitudes makes the
upcoming exercise even more dangerous than it otherwise might be (profi-forex.org/novosti-mira/entry1008310184.html).
On the one hand, if
this is the case, it would make a Russian coup against Lukashenka easier if
Moscow could count on the disloyalty to the Belarusian leader by Belarusian
siloviki. And on the other, it could mean that Belarusian siloviki might work
with Russian forces to help them create the basis for a subsequent Russian occupation
of the country.
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