Paul Goble
Staunton, June 5 – FSB General
Vladimir Kulishov, head of the Russian border guards service, warns that there
is a danger that Ukrainian diversionary groups will enter Russia and carry out
terrorist attacks, a danger one analyst sees intensifying at present as a
result of the escalation of military actions in the Donbass.
Aleksandr Shatilov, dead of the
sociology and political science faculty of Russia’s Finance University, seconds
Kulishov’s words and says that he expects the danger of Ukrainian penetration
of Russian territory and the carrying out of terrorist actions will only grow
if violence in the Donbass intensifies (realtribune.ru/news/world/896).
The 2014 Minsk Accords, he continues,
“were intended to reduce tensions not only between Ukraine and the republics of
the Donbass but also to normalize Russian-Ukrainian relations. However, alas,
this didn’t happen.” Instead, Kyiv with the
backing of the United States continued to “provoke tensions” in both
directions.
Ukrainian forces, he continues,
shelled the Donbass and sent in diversionary groups to destabilize the
situation. “Approximately the same tactic is being used against Russia, although
in somewhat different forms,” including the seizure of the Nord in the Sea of Azov
and the involvement of Ukrainian activists in unsanctioned meetings in Russia.
“Therefore, Shatilov says, “I would
not exclude threats of terrorist actions and diversions on the territory of
Russia from Ukraine, especially if Kyiv again provokes an escalation of
military actions in the Donbass.”
Kulishov and Shatilov’s words, of
course, should be read not as a description of Ukrainian plans but of Russian
ones that Moscow will hope to blame on Ukraine – and that of course, especially
given the reference to the Nord, makes it likely that Russian forces are
planning major provocations likely to be followed by new military action
against Ukraine.
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